Study: Predicting Player Behavior and How Zynga Profits from Data Analysis

An interesting front page story in The Wall Street Journal today by journalist Nick Wingfield discusses how casual gaming giant Zynga cashes in on their millions of players. After developing Fishville, following in the footsteps of highly successful titles like Farmville, managers noted players spending in-game currency on one type of fish more so than others. The “translucent angler fish” was being purchased more than 6 times the rate of other virtual fish. So the company quickly developed a whole line of translucent sea creatures, charging as much as $4 (this time, in real world money) for more exotic varieties.

This formula has been very successful for the company. Although only about five percent of Zynga’s player base spends serious money in their games, so many millions of people play that the company rakes in millions. They rake in even more by figuring out what the players want through data analysis.

Zynga is transforming the game industry. Traditional videogame companies create games they think players will like, then sell them. Zynga offers free games through Facebook Inc.’s social network, then studies data on how its audience plays them. It uses its findings to fiddle with the games to get people to play longer, tell more Facebook friends about them and buy more “virtual goods.” At the heart of the whole process is Zynga’s ability to analyze reams of data on how players are reacting to its games.

“We’re an analytics company masquerading as a games company,” said Ken Rudin, a Zynga vice president in charge of its data-analysis team, in one of a series of interviews with Zynga executives prior to the company’s July filing for an initial public offering.

This formula for financial success has other companies following Zynga’s lead. Rather than spending millions developing a title with a short shelf life, companies are turning to free games with extras that cost money. The primitive graphics Zynga uses are generally derided by serious gamers, but Zynga aims for the mass market, much the way American beer brewers produce bland beverages that appeal to the most palates.

All of Zynga’s games go through what amounts to a giant ongoing lab experiment involving players. Zynga conducts hundreds of “A-B tests” within its games, in which two sets of players see virtual goods on sale with, say, subtle color differences to see which color sells better…

Sizhao Yang, a former Zynga executive who helped create its virtual farming hit “FarmVille,” says his development team figured out by analyzing virtual-goods-sales data that “people buy animals a lot more than tractors and other inanimate objects.” The findings led the “FarmVille” team to more prominently feature animals in its online store, he says.

Interestingly, Wingfield reports there is considerable tension in the company between the data jockeys and the game designers. The game designers have a certain idea of how a game should look and function. The analysts drive the direction of game development based on the data, leading to tension. Some designers have quit the company in protest. Still, data remains the keystone in Zynga’s game plan for the foreseeable future.

The Zynga story on data analysis comes on the heels of the recent International Conference on the Foundations of Digital Games in Bordeaux this summer (fdg2011.org). There, Brent Harrison and David L. Roberts over at North Carolina State delivered an interesting paper, Using sequential observations to model and predict player behavior. Here’s their abstract:

In this paper, we present a data-driven technique for designing models of user behavior. Previously, player models were designed using user surveys, small-scale observation experiments, or knowledge engineering. These methods generally produced semantically meaningful models that were limited in their applicability. To address this, we have developed a purely data-driven methodology for generating player models based on past observations of other players. Our underlying assumption is that we can accurately predict what a player will do in a given situation if we examine enough data from former players that were in similar situations. We have chosen to test our method on achievement data from the MMORPG World of Warcraft. Experiments show that our method greatly outperforms a baseline algorithm in both precision and recall, proving that this method can create accurate player models based solely on observation data.

While not fixating on the profit motives that Zynga has in mind, Harrison and Roberts offer clues to game designers in guiding player behavior in-game. Educational games could become more engaging:

The ability to accurately predict a player’s behavior in a game has a number of applications. While these applications are beyond the scope of this paper, we discuss two of them briefly here to better situate and motivate our approach. With a model of player behavior, we can create an experience that is unique to a user’s tendencies or preferences. For example, if we predict that the user will choose to fight a certain non-player character (NPC) rather than talk to it, that NPC can be made more willing to fight. Another application involves guiding players to parts of games that they may enjoy. Modern games often take place in large, sandbox worlds where the player is given total freedom. It’s quite possible that players may never see content that they would like because the sandbox is just so big. Predictions about a player’s behavior can be used to guide her to the parts of the game that she would enjoy.

Eschewing surveys, the authors recommend a purely data-driven approach (as does Zynga):

We feel that a purely data-driven approach has significant promise for creating accurate predictive models of player behavior in games without the difficulties associated with earlier modeling techniques. Very little research has been done in this area to date.

Read the entire paper for further discussion of the algorithm they developed. Very interesting.

References:

Harrison, B & Roberts, D. L. (2011). Using sequential observations to model and predict player behavior. In Proceedings of the 2011 Foundations of Digital Games Conference. (FDG 2011), Bordeaux, France.

Wingfield, N. (2011, September 9). Virtual products, real profits. The Wall Street Journal, p.A1.
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Exploring the Renaissance Through Videogames

Shortly after Assassin’s Creed 2 came out, gamers noticed the rich historical detail included in the game’s setting. The protagonist who players guide through the game is sent back in time to Italy, AD 1499, there to prowl around buildings and streets and attack villains. The developers, self-avowed history nerds, hired consultants to ensure the buildings were rich in period detail. Here’s how The Wall Street Journal reported on their efforts:

They hired Renaissance scholars to advise on period garb, architecture, urban planning, weaponry and the like. They took tens of thousands of photographs of interiors and streets. They used Google Earth liberally to piece together the ground-up and sky-down perspectives through which the action flows. …

The game’s creative director, a Montrealer named Patrice Desilets, lived in Italy for some years, where he acquired a feel for the vivid intrigues of the Renaissance. He grew fascinated, he says, with the notion that “finally people can control time, and relive the past, through games.” The producer, Sebastien Puel, was born in the south of France, in the fortified medieval French town of Carcassonne, and grew up surrounded by history. The head writer, a Harvard graduate from Los Angeles and former screenwriter, Corey May, was driven, he says, by the challenge of “telling a story that feels real and is set among real people who existed.” …

Overall, though, Assassin’s Creed II is as close as we’ve managed to get to real time travel. The grown-ups can lap it up as a kind of virtual tourism. For the high schoolers, still the main audience, the video offers a kind of education by stealth. History matters more if your life depends on it, even as Ezio, and even if you’ve got lives to spare.

The amazing thing is developers of a highly anticipated release would even care to get most of the details right. If modifications of the game are allowed, it may find its way into history courses. It may find its way into classes regardless. Other academic efforts, such as Rome Reborn offer students only the opportunity to explore architecture. In AC2 students can fight bad guys while exploring.

Now, another major game focusing at least in part on the Italian Renaissance is due for release. This one is based on Dante’s Inferno. Yes, players will plumb the depths of hell, as envisioned by Dante, in this game from Electronic Arts. As you might imagine, hell is a bit graphic. Also, if you’ll recall, Dante described levels associated with the seven deadly sins. In the game, the level for lust is particularly graphic, replete with phallic symbols and nudity. This and other extreme graphics earn the game an M rating.

Producers are releasing a print edition of the poem illustrated by pictures from the game, hoping to encourage players to read Dante’s original work. Maybe kids who talk their parents into buying the game, despite its M rating, can actually learn something about the original work. But, I suspect parents would prefer the old-fashioned text version of the poem rather than an explicit video game.

References:
Kaylan, M. (2010, January 12). Time travel gets closer to reality. The Wall Street Journal, D7.

Virtual Economy Booming for 2010

While the RL economy may be stuck in the doldrums, the world’s virtual economies are booming, especially in the US and Asia. A recent BBC article indicates many companies are thriving by selling virtual items in their online gaming environments, with more companies than ever hitting it big. The article highlights Playfish, which has a player base of 61 million people on their 11 games, in which players can purchase virtual items for enhanced online gaming experiences.

Crucial to its success is the sale of virtual goods, ranging from furniture for your pet to menu items for your own restaurant in games like Pet Society and Restaurant City.

Lots of money is changing hands. One of the most prominent venues for casual games is Facebook. The social aspect of playing games leads to lots of hits, and lots of money.

About two thirds of the top 15 applications on Facebook are games, according to analytics firm AppData. Those ten games are said to draw more than 100 million users a month.

Earlier in December, one of the biggest social gaming companies, Zynga, sold a stake in the firm to Russia’s Digital Sky Technologies for $180m (£113m).

And in November, Electronic Arts, agreed to buy Playfish in a $400m deal (£251m).

Proof of how successful the virtual goods business has become is evident in moves by Facebook itself to test a payment system to get a cut each time an online-game player buys a digital tractor or pair of flip flops.

Via Kapp Notes.

References:
Shiels, M. (2009, December 29). The US virtual economy is set to make billions. BBC News. [Online.] Available: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/8425623.stm

At 40% of the Market, Videogame Publishers Pursue Women & Girls

Yukari Iwatani Kane over at The Wall Street Journal reports today that publishers are introducing more video games than ever this Christmas season geared toward the female market, in a nod to the ever increasing percentage of women players. The thinking goes, with each 5% increase in female players, publishers will see an additional $1 billion in sales. The number of overall female players has increased from 21% in 2001 to the current 40%, as cited in stats from Wedbush Morgan. (I previously noted the same statistic reported by Ipsos MediaCT.)

Here’s a list of games the article mentions that are either out or forthcoming:

• Charm Girls Club
• FarmVille (on FaceBook)
• Hannah Montana
• Just Dance
• Littlest Pet Shop
• Petz
• Sports Active
• StyleLab
• The Imagine line for the DS
• Wii Fit Plus
• Your Shape

Finally, Guitar Hero and Rock Band have cross-gender appeal.

References:
Kane, Y.I. (2009, October 13). Videogame firms make a play for women. The Wall Street Journal, B4.

Free Mind Exercising Games from FitBrains.com

Canada is now the third largest videogame producing country, overtaking Great Britain’s former position. Marke Andrews over at The Vancouver Sun reports on Vivity Labs, producer of FitBrains.com.

With mostly private money (from five hi-tech industry investors) and some public funds (Telefilm Canada, Industrial Research Assistance Program) behind it, Vivity Labs seeks to replicate the success of Nintendo’s popular Brain Age game, which is also aimed at greying boomers and seniors, and Electronic Arts’ Pogo, a game popular with boomer women. The company’s partners include Vancouver’s Michael Cole, who’s worked in the brain fitness field for the past seven years; Dr. Paul Nussbaum, an American clinical neuropsychologist who specializes in aging; and Mark Baxter, a Vancouver games developer … Prior to the launch, Cole has struck a deal with health magazine Prevention to put three Fit Brains games on its website, and another that licences Fit Brains games with Seattle casual video game site Big Fish.

The site offers nine games with a tenth on the way, aimed mainly at users 40 and over. The games focus on language, concentration, logic and spatial skills. The site will remain in open beta until August, when a monthly fee will be assessed for accessing advanced features of the site.

References:
Andrews, M. (2008, July 3). B.C. company takes aim at brain games geared for boomers. The Vancouver Sun. [Online]. Retrieved July 3, 2008 from http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/news/business/story.html?
id=7dcc2a05-1825-4245-bbdf-b5ff786a30e3

UK games industry ‘dead man walking’. (2008, July 2). Politics.co.uk. [Online]. Retrieved July 3, 2008 from http://www.politics.co.uk/news/opinion-former-index/
opinion-former-index/uk-games-industry-dead-man-walking–$1229794.htm

Xbox Goes to College to Help Football Players Learn Their Moves

I knew Microsoft endeavored to tap into the modding potential of the Xbox. Now comes an AP story about a company called XOS Technologies selling modified Xbox football games to Division I universities. The returning national champions Louisiana Statue University Tiger’s football team uses the game, as do the University of Tennessee Volunteers (for our friends over in Louisiana, I have to say for the championship game tonight, “Geaux Tigers.”) The game is called PlayAction Simulator, and has apparently played a role in leading the Tigers to another successful season this year.

XOS Technologies programs in all the team’s offensive plays, then all the defensive plays of their opposition. Quarterbacks and other offensive players can play the game to help learn their plays, and see how mistakes can lead to turnovers and other mishaps.

The game looks and plays just like the popular Madden NFL and NCAA football games, though all the goofy stuff such as player celebrations, cheering crowds, mascots and bands have been removed.

If LSU wins tonight, the Xbox and XOS Technologies can certainly claim part of the credit.

Update:
A victory for the Xbox: LSU beat Ohio State 38-24.

The Top 10 Free Educational Video Games

The main reason for inclusion in the top 10 was the impact a game had on the educational gaming field. Some of these are getting rather long in the tooth as far as games go, yet their impact is still being felt in educational research that was foundational or continues to be published. On the other hand, new titles are coming out all the time and this list may well change in the future.

The criteria for inclusion were simple. The game must be free and preferably available online. Some of the games are modifications of existing games (mostly Neverwinter Nights). So, mods are free but to run them you will need to purchase the original engine. But that’s a minor quibble since they are free if you already own the engine.

I am interested in other titles, so if you have a favorite that is not on the list, drop me an e-mail and let me know about it. Finally, I also included the learning objectives, host URLs, and my comments on the games. So, give these educational games a look-see, and consider using them in a classroom or other formal learning situation. And let me know about it if you do.

1. Revolution
Type: Modification of Neverwinter Nights Gold
Learning Objective: Experience historical incentives for the American Revolution from the grassroots level.
Host URL: http://www.educationarcade.org/revolution
Comment: This is the game that started folks talking about seriously using the modifiable Neverwinter Nights engine for educational purposes. Several papers were published on this game, focusing on its interactive means of teaching students about the American Revolution. It was perhaps best introduced to academics in a widely read article by Joel Foreman over at George Mason in the first issue of Innovate.

2. Re-Mission
Type: Executable
Host URL: http://www.re-mission.net/
Learning Objective: Understand cancer better and develop a positive attitude toward defeating it.
Comment: It’s a big download, but well worth the wait. The game from HopeLab is aimed at teaching young cancer patients about the disease and providing opportunities to enhance understanding in a positive environment. It offers the latest in educational videogame design, with backing from a well-funded sponsor. Also available in Spanish and French, and can be ordered for free on CD by mail.

3. River City
Type: Multi-user Virtual Environment
Host URL: http://muve.gse.harvard.edu/muvees2003/index.html
Learning Objective: Develop an understanding of the scientific method through inquiry and teamwork, as well as an appreciation for history and environmental issues.
Comment: One of the two big NSF projects for educational gaming on this list, with several years of research following its progress. This Harvard product is freely available to schools, but only on disc through the mail. The team prefers sending it to teachers wishing to use the program in science classes. Chris Dede spearheaded the project.

4. Quest Atlantis
Type: Multi-user Virtual Environment
Host URL: http://atlantis.crlt.indiana.edu
Learning Objective: Help students understand social studies, environmental concerns, current events, and scientific standards.
Comment: Although this Indiana University project offers a guest area where interested parties can explore the Quest Atlantis universe, the NSF-funded project requires teachers contact the team before allowing full access. Several thousand participants have joined QA, and research is ongoing. Sasha Barab spearheaded the project

5. Arden
Type: Modification of Neverwinter Nights Diamond
Host URL: http://swi.indiana.edu/arden/index.shtml
Learning Objective: Attain an appreciation of Shakespearean authorship and Elizabethan England.
Comment: As part of the Serious Worlds Initiative over at Indiana University, Arden was initially funded by the MacArthur Foundation. Executive producer is Edward Castronova, whose book Synthetic Worlds covers many of the economic and social issues in MMOs. Castronova has professed that Arden is not very exciting to typical gamers (no monsters to slay). However, the notion of exploring Shakespeare’s world should prove interesting to English majors and other aficionados of the Bard’s work.

6. The History Canada Game
Type: Modification of Civilization III
Host URL: http://www.historycanadagame.com/
Learning Objective: Understand social forces surrounding Canadian history since 1534.
Comment: O Canada! Down here south of the border, we hardly know ye! But, an initiative funded by Canada’s National History Society and The Historica Foundation aims to change that, for Canadians as well as those outside her borders.

7. America’s Army
Type: Executable
Host URL: http://www.americasarmy.com
Learning Objectives: Teamwork, and a greater understanding of US military expectations for recruits.
Comment: Critics decry this free videogame as a recruiting tool for the military. The Army shrugs its collective shoulders and says, “So?” Actually, America’s Army has many fans with no military expectations. One Ph.D. candidate I work with is a self-described “America’s Army widow.” Almost 3 gigs for the full version; its free nature ensures many adherents for years to come.

8. Food Force
Type: Executable
Host URL: http://www.food-force.com/
Learning Objectives: Understand world hunger and efforts to alleviate it.
Comment: Classroom materials and instructions are available on-site. Besides English, the UN-backed Food Force is available in (alphabetical order): Chinese, Finnish, French, German, Hungarian, Italian, Japanese, Norwegian, Polish, and Portuguese.

9. Whyville
Type: Instructional Online Virtual World
Host URL: http://www.whyville.net/smmk/nice
Learning Objectives: Provide a student-centered, hands-on environment for exploring various school subjects.
Comment: This Numedeon-backed product is aimed at elementary and middle school students, in hopes of encouraging “scientific discovery” and “social responsibility.”

10. SimCity
Type: Web-based
Host URL: http://simcity.ea.com/play/simcity_classic.php
Learning Objectives: Understand variable manipulations for urban management while having fun building a simulated city.
Comment: Critics have attacked its oversimplification of urban management, but countless children the world over have learned such truisms as the correlation between higher taxes and a disgruntled populace. Also, if you deplete the fire departments’ budget, disasters will devastate your city! The original SimCity is available online gratis from Electronic Arts, with adverts for the newest version, SimCity 4.

Update:
This list is getting long in the tooth, and many new games have been developed or improved since its introduction in 2007. For one, check out Selene from Wheeling Jesuit University’s Center for Educational Technologies. It is free, available online, and promotes science learning along with lunar exploration.

More great educational games are discussed on this blog on a regular basis. Subscribe to the RSS feed to keep up with the latest posts. Thanks.

Programming with Alice at Carnegie Mellon

In continuing our ongoing discussion of teaching kids programming skills by having them design their own computer games, Kathy Larason suggested I take a look at Alice over at Carnegie Mellon.

Alice is an introductory 3-D programming language that focuses on animation objects. The graphics are interactive, and could be constructed as games or animations. The main code and accompanying documentation are housed at alice.org.

Alice is a major endeavor. Four textbooks on programming with Alice were published in 2006; one in 2007; and at least one more is slated for 2008. Workshops are ongoing this summer, including sites at Carnegie Mellon, Roger Williams University, and Georgia Tech.

Alice has been widely adopted in schools and colleges. In a PowerPoint presentation led by Dennis Cosgrove, Caitlin Kelleher and others at ACM SIGCSE 2007 earlier this year, several statistics were given. The main site has had some 3.5 million page views, and almost half a million downloads of the program have occurred over the past year. About 250 colleges and universities are using Alice to teach programming.

Alice has a serious agenda. Computer Science majors continue to decline in numbers, and there are numerous ongoing efforts to interest girls and women in programming as well as math and the hard sciences. Researchers being as they are, several studies of Alice and its effect on this serious agenda are ongoing. One study of initial Computer Science class takers at Ithaca College and St. Joseph University showed a jump in grade averages (from C to B) and a large jump in willingness to take the second semester of Computer Science when participants were exposed to Alice prior to taking the class (see reference below).

Alice 3.0 is due out in 2008. Besides funding from the NSF, sponsors have included video game giant Electronic Arts, DARPA, Intel, Microsoft, the Office of Naval Research, and others. The Electronic Arts Foundation recently donated $300,000 to the effort, and EA has granted permission to use characters from The Sims 2 in Alice 3.0. The Sims line has long been the most popular computer video game series, and is appealing to both male and female players.

Alice is well worth watching as an introduction to computer programming. I’ll be interested in reading more about it as research studies continue to be published.

References

Moskal, M., Lurie, D., & Cooper, S. Evaluating the effectiveness of a new instructional approach. In Proceedings of 2004 SIGCSE Conference. Norfolk, VA.